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Stop Estimating in Hours: Why Relative Sizing Saves Your Sprint

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"How many hours will this take?"

It is the most common question in software planning, and usually the most dangerous. When teams estimate in hours, they aren't measuring complexity—they are guessing based on who might do the work.

Switching to Story Points (SP) shifts the focus from "personal speed" to "problem size," creating estimates that actually stand the test of time.

1. Why Hour-Based Estimates Fail

Hours are tied to the person, not the problem.

The Senior vs. Junior Trap: A task might take a Lead Engineer 2 hours but a Junior Developer 8 hours. If you estimate "2 hours" and the Junior pulls the ticket, your sprint plan immediately breaks.

The "Buffer" Game: Developers learn to pad their estimates to avoid being blamed for delays. "It will take 4 hours" becomes "I'll say 8 hours just in case."

Pressure to Rush: When an estimate is in hours, developers feel like they are "on the clock," leading to cut corners and technical debt.

2. What Are Story Points? (The "Fruit Basket" Analogy)

Story points measure effort relative to other tasks, not calendar time.

Think of a fruit basket. You don't need a stopwatch to know that a Watermelon is bigger than an Apple.

It doesn't matter if you eat the apple fast or slow—the apple is always smaller than the watermelon.

In code: A "Update Label" task is always smaller than a "Build Payment Gateway" task, regardless of who types the code.

3. How to Start Sizing (The Workflow)

You don't need complex math. You just need a baseline.

Step 1: Pick Your "1 Point" Story

Find a simple, repetitive task everyone understands.

Example: "Change a text label on the UI" or "Add a single field to the database."

This is your 1 SP.

Step 2: Size by Comparison

For every new story, compare it to your baseline.

  • "Is this about the same size?" → 1 SP
  • "Is this twice as complex?" → 2 SP
  • "Is this huge and risky?" → 8 SP or 13 SP (Fibonacci sequence)

Step 3: Use Planning Poker

The goal isn't just a number; it's the conversation.

  • The team discusses the story.
  • Everyone reveals their estimate card at the same time.
  • Gap Analysis: If Sarah votes "2" and Ahmed votes "8," you have a misunderstanding. Ahmed might see a risk Sarah missed.
  • Discuss until you reach a shared understanding.

4. The Payoff: Velocity

Once you stop using hours, you gain a powerful metric: Velocity.

If your team completes 20 Story Points per sprint on average, you can now forecast with confidence.

  • Product Owner: "We have 100 points in the backlog."
  • Forecast: "Great, that means we are roughly 5 sprints away from completion."

This calculation holds true even if team members take vacations or get sick, because the size of the work never changed—only the capacity did.

Conclusion

Hours measure time, but software development is about solving problems. By switching to Story Points, you decouple the "size of the work" from the "speed of the worker." This eliminates the stress of hourly deadlines and gives Product Owners data they can actually trust.

Stop asking "How long?" and start asking "How big?"

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